Article
America
Conspiracy theory
Culture
Politics
5 min read

US election: the primal stories trumping facts

Projections and polls cannot capture the power of stories shaping identity.

Jared holds a Theological Ethics PhD from the University of Aberdeen. His research focuses conspiracy theory, politics, and evangelicalism.

a map depicts US states coloured red and blue.
538 election prediction map.
ABC News.

Washington D.C. — Election throes in America are intensifying while citizens prepare to cast their votes. The last week alone has been something like a whirlwind, not to mention the entire campaign itself. 

Last week, Americans tuned into the first and possibly final Presidential debate between Trump and Harris. On the heels of the debate came a flurry of propaganda leveled by JD Vance (and promoted by Trump) against Haitian migrant communities in Ohio. These claims resulted in bomb threats and school closures. 

And to wrap up the week, a second assassination attempt on Donald Trump in nearly as many months. Trump and his campaign, quicker and more direct that the first attempt, quickly cast the blame towards Democrats, specifically for what they see as violent rhetoric in describing Trump as a “threat to democracy.” Trump meanwhile continues to campaign on threats and claims of election fraud, refusing to signal he’d accept the certified results of the election in the event he loses.  

That’s just another week in an unpredictable American presidential election. 

Americans are besieged, all of us, by a throng of pollsters, partisans, and pundits. Each trying to ride the raging bull of the election cycle. 

And life goes on. For now, in this time, in my small corner of American life, I find there is this mixture of exhausted apathy and existential rage. In view of the spectacle, there’s a general exasperation of “what will happen next?” But more personally, dispersed on social media, is the existential zeal and dread—“we” have to defeat “them!”   

The danger of this mixture is twofold. Just as odd as it is potent. It is also combustible. And just as it can lay dormant; it can also be summoned by a mere spark.  

Americans are besieged, all of us, by a throng of pollsters, partisans, and pundits. Each trying to ride the raging bull of the election cycle with predictions and projections. Some offer prayer. 

I listen in on conservative Christian talk radio. Prayers offered on air for God to intervene. What follows is a litany of slogans— “secure our borders” and “defend life” and “the economy” — and of course prayers for the salvation of those who think differently.  

Then, there’s more daring outrage merchants with deep pockets. Those who try to shift the election through nefarious means. Like the case of Tenet Media, a media network of right-wing American podcasters who were recently indicted by the Justice Department for receiving Russian funds through fronted companies.  

It seems to me that the heart of the matter in the midst of this election, deeper than policy and beyond the spectacle, is that none of us are entirely sure what reality another person inhabits.  

A new study published last week found that most registered Republicans (at 67 per cent) trust the Trump campaign as their primary source for election information. Trump’s word, for nearly three quarters of his party, is given more authority than government certification, media-based news, or local news. 

This raises the possibility that, in 50-some-odd days, if Trump refuses to concede, if he repeats claims of election fraud, his base seems ready and willing to believe it.  

Our social and political worlds have been set on fire not for want of facts but by stories which overpower fact with meaning.

Alongside the debates about policy, the propaganda that stokes division and dehumanizes migrant communities, is a deeper crisis of source authority. Of not just “facts” but truth, of meaning, of reality. 

The study revealed that most Americans signal they tend to trust information that comes from “data” and “facts.” But oddly enough, nothing about that statement seems to accord with the on the ground reality of America’s social fabric.  

We should know by now: facts have never been enough.  

100 years ago, as novelist Rebecca West reflected on the chaotic series of events that sparked World War I, she admitted, “I shall never be able to understand how it happened. It is not that there are too few facts available, but that there are too many.” 

 What seems “real” for many Americans is not (and perhaps has never been) rooted entirely in the all-powerful “fact.” Our social and political worlds have been set on fire not for want of facts but by stories which overpower fact with meaning. These stories are primal. They’re the kind which create identities and bind communities. They are rich in meaning and so prove entirely immune to fact-checking operations. Source authority has no power apart from primal stories. And though projections and polls tend to focus on the data, they cannot capture the power of stories which create identity and contain community. This is the stuff the vote is made of, too. 

This past week, JD Vance defended his propaganda in the form of conspiracy theories of Haitian migrants eating pets by telling CNN, “If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that's what I'm going to do.”  

Ends-justifies-means has always been ascendant in politics. Nobody is arguing that MAGA invented political expediency. But this election is careening towards deep waters which we would do well to avoid. 

“Propaganda is a means to an end,” said Reich Minister of Propaganda Joseph Goebbels in 1934 before an audience at Nuremberg, “…it provides the background music...[it] miraculously makes the unpopular popular, enabling even a government’s most difficult decisions to secure the resolute support of the people.” 

I do not know what the next 50 days will hold. I remain deeply concerned that the word of Trump aspires to assume an authority which sees democracy as a meddling imposition in one man’s destiny. But I do know that none of this is fated. As Augustine observed during the throes of Rome’s collapse: “Bad times! Hard times!” this is what they are saying. But let us live well and the times shall be well. We are the times. Such as we are, such are the times. 

May it be so. 

Review
Culture
4 min read

Most popular 2024: Graham Tomlin

From princes to politicians, Graham's top takes of the year.

Nick is the senior editor of Seen & Unseen.

A young man wearing a dark suit talks to a minister wearing regalia.
Prince William talks with the Dean of Westminster Abbey, 2019.
LPhot Belinda Alker, OGL 3, via Wikimedia Commons.

We’re wrapping up the year reviewing what articles were most popular with Seen & Unseen readers. Our first analysis is of Bishop Graham Tomlin’s takes on the year’s events. What did our editor-in-chief write about?

2024 was billed as the year of elections, so it’s no surprise to see two takes on the US presidential election. And back in the United Kingdom, Graham also commented on the age old tension between politicians and clerics.  Public scandals also caught his eye, from the  injustice meted out by the Post Office, to the pure evil of abuse.

Away from the politics of the public realm, Graham explored the perennial themes of the sacred and secular views of the world. However, this year, he also wrote on paganism. If your first image that comes to mind is of ancient cultures, think again. And in the very personal realm of belief, Graham’s take on Prince William’s doubts

Finally, could a 2024 review not mention podcasts? As a scholar of theologian Martin Luther, Graham, of course had views on The Rest is History’s episode about Luther – The Rest is Luther...

In reverse order...

10 - Did God tell Joe Biden to stand down?

His story teaches us to listen a little more intently to what comes our way.

Explore more articles on themes in this article: Ageing, Politics, Providence.

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Politicians don’t always get how church and state relate, but both have a vital and different role to play when it comes to immigration.

The Church and the State need to disagree on asylum seekers | Seen & Unseen

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8 - Are we Secular, Christian or Pagan?

After the Paris Olympics, Graham Tomlin wonders whether a full-on secularism could veer back towards a modern paganism. 

Explore more articles on themes in this article: BeliefPaganism.

7 - After the fall: the Post Office scandal and the search for justice

Falls from grace, like that of the Post Office’s CEO, prompt Graham Tomlin to dissect the problems of justice and mercy.

Explore more articles on themes in this article: Creed, Ethics, Justice.

6 - John Smyth: how evil masks itself as goodness

Be alert to the cloaked and warped wherever it occurs.

Explore more articles on themes in this article: Creed.

5 - Did God save Donald Trump?

In the aftermath of the assassination attempt, Graham Tomlin asks whether or not we can see the hand of God in it.

Did God save Donald Trump? | Seen & Unseen

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4 - The difference between Richard Dawkins and Ayaan Hirsi Ali

How we decide what is true rests on where we start from.

Explore more articles on themes in this article: Atheism, Belief, Epistemology.

3  - God in the garbage: Egypt's unlikely megachurch

Cairo's Church of the Zabballeen is the largest Church, and one of the most unusual in the Middle East. Graham Tomlin tells its story and that of the remarkable priest who inspired it.

Explore more articles on themes in this article: Coptic Church, Identity, Middle East.

2 - The Rest is Luther

Did 'The Rest is History' get Luther right? Graham Tomlin gives his verdict

Explore more articles on themes in this article: Creed, Faith, Justification.

1  - Prince William's doubt is normal - it's impossible to be certain whether there is a God

Our limited human understanding means we will never fully understand God in this life, writes Graham Tomlin.

Prince William's doubt is normal - it's impossible to be certain whether there is a God | Seen & Unseen

Explore more articles on themes in this article: BeliefDoubt, Faith, Royalty.

0  - A history of Israel and Palestine – 4,000 years of history in 2,500 words

First published in late 2023, this analysis remains the most popular Seen & Unseen article to date.

The land at the heart of the Middle Eastern crisis is at the centre of world attention again. For those whose grasp on the history behind the situation is hazy, Graham Tomlin offers a brief survey.

Explore more articles on themes in this article: Gaza, Israel, Middle East, Old Testament, War & Peace.

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